The NFL offseason just handed fantasy managers the biggest cheat code of the year — and most people are sleeping on it. Coaching changes. Specifically, who’s calling plays, how they’re calling them, and which players are about to explode — or get buried.
In this episode, we’re cutting through the noise to give you the ONLY changes that actually matter for your roster. We’ve got the stats, the tendencies, the buy signals, and the hard avoids. Let’s get into it.
🔑 Why Coaching Changes Matter for Fantasy
A single coordinator change can shift an offense from bottom-10 to top-5 almost overnight. Think Caleb Williams in 2025 — after Ben Johnson arrived in Chicago, the Bears’ offense jumped to 6th in the NFL in total yards and Williams finished as the QB5. That’s a first-round fantasy pick emerging because of a coaching hire.
On the flip side, the Las Vegas Raiders ranked dead last — 32nd in points scored in 2025. New blood is coming in, but serious questions remain.
Here are the 6 teams with coaching changes you need to know before draft day.
1. Chicago Bears — Year 2 with Ben Johnson ✅ BUY
| Role | OUT | IN |
|---|---|---|
| Head Coach | Matt Eberflus (fired Week 11, 2024) | Ben Johnson (former Lions OC) |
📊 Offensive Snapshot (2025 Season)
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| Offensive Ranking | #6 in total offense (369.2 ypg) | #9 in points (25.9 ppg) |
| Run Rate | ~45% | Ranked 3rd in rushing (144.5 rush ypg) |
| WR Target Share | DJ Moore ~22% | Rome Odunze ~19% | Luther Burden III ~12% |
| TE Target Share | Colston Loveland ~14% (58 rec, 713 yds, 6 TDs as a rookie) |
🎯 Fantasy Impact
- Caleb Williams finished QB5 in 2025 — his ceiling is QB1 in Year 2 with Johnson. First-round value in 2-QB/superflex leagues.
- Rome Odunze breakout alert: with a full year in the system, targets are projected to climb into the WR2 range.
- DJ Moore remains a rock-solid WR2 — the veteran knows this offense cold.
- Colston Loveland is the sneakiest TE target in fantasy. Johnson turned Sam LaPorta into TE1 as a rookie in Detroit. Loveland already had 713 yards and 6 TDs in year one. This could be a top-5 TE.
- D’Andre Swift is undervalued — Chicago’s elite run game (3rd in the NFL) means volume at RB.
“Year two of Ben Johnson in Chicago and folks, the sky is literally the limit. Last season the Bears scored 441 points — 9th most in franchise history. Caleb Williams finished QB5. Rome Odunze is primed for a massive leap. And Colston Loveland — 713 yards and 6 touchdowns as a ROOKIE. Ben Johnson turned Sam LaPorta into a TE1 in Detroit; now he has Loveland. If you’re not targeting Chicago’s skill players in your draft, you are leaving money on the table.”
2. Jacksonville Jaguars — Liam Coen Takes Over ✅ BUY
| Role | OUT | IN |
|---|---|---|
| Head Coach | Doug Pederson (fired Jan 2025) | Liam Coen (former Buccaneers OC) |
📊 Offensive Snapshot (2025 Season)
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| Offensive Ranking | #6 in points (27.9 ppg / 474 pts) | #11 in passing (236.8 ypg) |
| Run Rate | ~40% run / 60% pass — Coen favors pass-first with structured play-action |
| WR Target Share | Brian Thomas Jr. ~25-27% | Travis Hunter ~20-22% (projected full season) |
| TE Target Share | Brenton Strange ~10% | Reduced TE usage vs. prior scheme |
🎯 Fantasy Impact
- Trevor Lawrence is a legitimate QB2 with QB1 upside. Coen’s scheme in Tampa produced a top-3 scoring offense.
- Brian Thomas Jr. is a bonafide WR1. In just 14 games: 88 targets, 48 catches, 707 yards. A full 17-game season under Coen puts him in the top-10 WR conversation.
- Travis Hunter is the X-factor. He suffered an LCL injury and played only 7 games in 2025, but projected to 700+ yards over a full season. If healthy — must-draft WR2.
- Coen’s offense runs 60%+ pass rate with play-action — a fantasy-friendly environment for all skill positions.
- Running back upside is moderate — Coen didn’t lean heavy on the run game in Tampa. RBs are flex options only.
“Liam Coen just transformed Trevor Lawrence. In Tampa, Coen’s offense ranked third in the NFL in scoring — TOP THREE. Now he brings that same scheme to Jacksonville, where he has Brian Thomas Jr. and a healthy Travis Hunter. Brian Thomas was on pace for 1,000 yards in just 14 games, and Hunter, when healthy, is a generational talent. Target this offense.”
3. Atlanta Falcons — Kevin Stefanski Brings His Zone Scheme ✅ BUY
| Role | OUT | IN |
|---|---|---|
| Head Coach | Raheem Morris (fired Jan 2026, 16-18 in 2 seasons) | Kevin Stefanski (2x NFL Coach of the Year) |
📊 Offensive Snapshot (2025 Season)
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| Offensive Ranking | ~20th in 2025 — massive upside incoming |
| Run Rate | ~50-55% projected (Stefanski ran 71% of under-center snaps in Cleveland) |
| WR Target Share | Drake London ~22% | Play-action opens the boundary |
| TE Target Share | Kyle Pitts ~12-15% — play-action TE crosses are a Stefanski staple |
🎯 Fantasy Impact
- Bijan Robinson could be the single biggest beneficiary of this coaching change. Stefanski’s wide-zone rushing scheme is built for a cut-back runner like Bijan. Potential RB1 overall.
- Kyle Pitts renaissance incoming. Stefanski loves tight ends in play-action — David Njoku had multiple 800-yard seasons in Cleveland under this system. Pitts has the athletic upside; he’s never had a coach who schemes for him. This could finally be his year.
- Drake London as a WR2 with upside — play-action opens the field and Stefanski maximizes boundary receivers.
- ⚠️ CAUTION: Michael Penix Jr. is recovering from an ACL injury suffered in Week 11, 2025. Return timeline is July–October 2026. Monitor closely before drafting Atlanta QBs.
- If Penix is healthy — sleeper QB2. If he misses time — temper expectations across the board.
“The Atlanta Falcons finally have a real offensive architect. Kevin Stefanski won Coach of the Year TWICE by doing one thing better than almost anyone — running the football in a wide zone scheme and killing defenses with play-action. Bijan Robinson is going to FEAST. And Kyle Pitts — after years of being misused — is finally in a scheme that deploys tight ends the way Travis Kelce is deployed in Kansas City. The only concern? Penix’s ACL. Keep a close eye on his recovery timeline.”
4. New York Giants — John Harbaugh + Matt Nagy ✅ BUY
| Role | OUT | IN |
|---|---|---|
| HC / OC | Brian Daboll (fired mid-season 2025) | Mike Kafka (OC) | John Harbaugh (HC) | Matt Nagy (OC, former Chiefs/Bears HC) |
📊 Offensive Snapshot (2025 Season)
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| Offensive Ranking | #30 in total yards | #31 in points (273 pts) — massive room to grow |
| Run Rate | ~48% projected — Harbaugh likes physical football; Nagy brings Andy Reid’s pass-first tree |
| WR Target Share | Wan’Dale Robinson ~18% | WR corps being upgraded |
| TE Target Share | Isaiah Likely ~18-20% — Nagy ran 2TE sets 30% of snaps in KC, used TE like Kelce |
🎯 Fantasy Impact
- Isaiah Likely is this year’s most underrated breakout candidate. Matt Nagy has explicitly said he wants to use Likely the way Andy Reid used Travis Kelce — motion, routes from everywhere, designed touches. He is a TE1 sleeper at a massive discount.
- The Giants’ 2025 offense was historically bad — 31st in points. Any competent coaching upgrade means major improvement across the board.
- Jaxson Dart (rookie QB) is in a perfect development system. Low fantasy ceiling in Year 1, but watch for mid-season emergence.
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary give the Giants a capable RB committee — run volume should increase under Harbaugh.
- Wide receiver situation remains a work in progress — proceed with caution until training camp clarifies the depth chart.
“The name you need to write down right now is Isaiah Likely. Matt Nagy specifically said he wants to use Likely the way Reid used Travis Kelce — in motion, running routes from everywhere, designed touches. A former Travis Kelce disciple in a Kelce-style role? That is a top-10 tight end waiting to happen at a bargain price. The Giants offense is rebuilding, but Likely is a steal.”
5. Las Vegas Raiders — Klint Kubiak Inherits a Mess 🚫 AVOID
| Role | OUT | IN |
|---|---|---|
| Head Coach | Pete Carroll (retired/fired Jan 2025) | Klint Kubiak (former Seahawks OC) |
📊 Offensive Snapshot (2025 Season)
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| Offensive Ranking | 🚨 #32 in points (241 pts / 14.0 ppg) — DEAD LAST |
| Run Rate | ~45% projected — Kubiak improved Seattle’s run game from 28th to 10th |
| WR Target Share | Jakobi Meyers ~20% | Tre Tucker ~12% | Receiving corps thin |
| TE Target Share | Brock Bowers ~22% — the lone bright spot; led all TEs in receiving as a rookie |
🎯 Fantasy Impact
- Brock Bowers is the ONLY fantasy player worth targeting on this roster. He led all tight ends in receiving yards as a rookie and is a certified TE1.
- 🚨 BIG CONCERN: Aidan O’Connell grades out poorly in the intermediate passing game (52.9% adjusted completion rate on 10-19 yard passes) — and that IS Kubiak’s offense. It’s a fundamental scheme mismatch.
- Ashton Jeanty is worth monitoring as an RB2 — Kubiak improved Seattle’s run game 18 spots. If Jeanty earns a feature role, he has value.
- AVOID all Raiders WRs — thin corps, bad QB fit, dead-last offense in 2025.
- This offense needs 1-2 seasons to rebuild. In 2026, it remains a fantasy wasteland outside of Bowers.
“Dead last in points scored in 2025. Dead last. Klint Kubiak is a talented young coach who helped build one of the best offenses in Seattle, but he walked into a roster that is not equipped for his system. His offense runs through the intermediate passing game — and Aidan O’Connell’s adjusted completion rate on those exact routes was 52.9%. That is one of the worst marks in the entire league. One bright spot — and I mean ONE — is Brock Bowers. Draft him. But stay away from everybody else on this roster.”
6. Miami Dolphins — The McDaniel Era Ends, Uncertainty Reigns 🚫 AVOID
| Role | OUT | IN |
|---|---|---|
| HC / OC | Mike McDaniel (fired Jan 2026) | Frank Smith (OC) | Jeff Hafley (HC, former Packers DC) | Bobby Slowik (OC) |
📊 Offensive Snapshot (2025 Season)
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| Offensive Ranking | ~22nd in points | Fell from #1 offense in 2023 to middling |
| Run Rate | ~35% — Slowik’s Texans offense was pass-first |
| WR Target Share | 🚨 Tyreek Hill RELEASED | Jaylen Waddle TRADED | Receiving corps gutted |
| TE Target Share | Jonnu Smith ~15% | TE situation unclear heading into 2026 |
🎯 Fantasy Impact
- 🚨 MAJOR WARNING: Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are GONE. Miami stripped its receiving corps to the bone heading into 2026.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s future is uncertain — benched late in 2025, threw 15 INTs, and his status heading into 2026 is murky.
- De’Von Achane is the only player worth monitoring — pass-first scheme under Slowik means receiving back usage is a plus.
- Jeff Hafley is a defensive coach by background. Offensive vision is a serious question mark for this regime.
- HARD AVOID on all Dolphins skill positions until training camp reveals the receiving corps and QB situation.
“The Miami Dolphins were the hottest offense in the entire NFL in 2023 — number one in the LEAGUE. And now? Mike McDaniel is gone. Tyreek Hill is gone. Jaylen Waddle is gone. The receiving corps has been completely gutted. DO NOT draft Miami skill players until you see what this roster actually looks like at training camp. Hard avoid.”
📊 Episode Summary: BUY vs. AVOID
| Team | Signal | Top Target | Key Concern |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | ✅ BUY | Caleb Williams / Colston Loveland | 3 WRs splitting targets |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | ✅ BUY | Brian Thomas Jr. | Travis Hunter injury history |
| Atlanta Falcons | ✅ BUY | Bijan Robinson / Kyle Pitts | Michael Penix ACL recovery |
| New York Giants | ✅ BUY | Isaiah Likely (TE1 sleeper) | Jaxson Dart is a rookie QB |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 🚫 AVOID | Brock Bowers ONLY | O’Connell scheme mismatch |
| Miami Dolphins | 🚫 AVOID | De’Von Achane (wait and see) | Hill & Waddle both gone |
🎬 Final Thoughts
Coaching changes are the most underrated edge in fantasy football, and now you’ve got the intel. Target Chicago, Jacksonville, Atlanta, and New York. Grab Isaiah Likely before the rest of the world catches on. Stay away from Las Vegas — except for Brock Bowers. And don’t touch Miami until training camp tells you otherwise.
Drop a comment below with your biggest offseason target — and subscribe for weekly drops all the way to draft day. Next episode: free agent pickups and second-year breakout candidates.
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